Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 23.144454 24.553393 26.047035 27.755873 29.666237 31.747278 34.201003
2026-01-18 21.280915 23.202370 25.340266 27.920828 30.986893 34.560815 39.115575
2026-01-25 19.823786 21.971603 24.433006 27.506544 31.307702 35.949812 42.209582
2026-02-01 18.641588 20.917877 23.585742 27.006220 31.374403 36.918619 44.767746
2026-02-08 17.388215 19.675136 22.396862 25.951013 30.594448 36.655723 45.556936
2026-02-15 17.040865 19.492013 22.468195 26.450532 31.816539 39.099767 50.374360
2026-02-22 16.640021 19.208080 22.379768 26.714219 32.716450 41.157766 54.893508
2026-03-01 15.880508 18.431204 21.613731 26.019037 32.223072 41.145758 56.143603
2026-03-08 14.759913 17.152498 20.144928 24.299689 30.174490 38.669468 53.062418
2026-03-15 14.451529 16.899882 19.998581 24.366281 30.668168 40.034258 56.569454
2026-03-22 14.223076 16.737678 19.958465 24.568613 31.360847 41.752895 60.942103
2026-03-29 13.909325 16.450066 19.735368 24.496307 31.631192 42.813821 64.273210
2026-04-05 13.692506 16.336233 19.812738 24.963868 32.927865 45.987742 73.011778
2026-04-12 13.376928 16.080682 19.688433 25.139703 33.807789 48.633615 81.673195
2026-04-19 12.922563 15.612556 19.237130 24.786805 33.783585 49.636343 86.960575
2026-04-26 12.484501 15.147520 18.765661 24.368847 33.606516 50.319856 91.720491
2026-05-03 11.933350 14.507026 18.017148 23.481727 32.561927 49.197341 91.436736
2026-05-10 11.813617 14.457316 18.110443 23.902147 33.794617 52.748891 105.536214
2026-05-17 11.644071 14.329582 18.081707 24.123673 34.694172 55.779855 119.955678
2026-05-24 11.260168 13.886279 17.570753 23.539058 34.077702 55.435609 122.863012
2026-05-31 10.651329 13.110413 16.547498 22.085172 31.781600 51.151608 110.299789
2026-06-07 10.489234 12.964811 16.453742 22.141698 32.287140 53.211031 122.073294
2026-06-14 10.367079 12.871373 16.432502 22.313335 33.019438 55.912334 138.366910